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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."